Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, August 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, August 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, August 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, August 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, August 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, August 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300842 SPC AC 300842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

Surface high pressure will build into the eastern CONUS this weekend and usher in an extended period of cooler and less humid weather for much of the eastern CONUS with reduced severe weather chances. Some severe weather chances will remain from the central High Plains to the northern Plains where low-level moisture is expected to remain. Several weak embedded mid-level shortwave troughs may result in some thunderstorm activity from the central to northern High Plains amid moderate to strong instability. A few severe storms are possible early next week with any of these passing troughs.

There is some signal that a more organized severe weather threat could materialize by the middle of next week as strong instability builds across the northern Plains and stronger mid-level troughing and flow becomes more prevalent across the region. However, predictability is low within this low-amplitude pattern. There is not much consensus for the overall pattern beyond D6/Monday and therefore, no severe weather probabilities are warranted at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, July 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, July 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, August 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, August 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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