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Outlook for Thursday, August 14

Outlook Summary

Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe 15%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120708

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

### SUMMARY

Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening.

Discussion

On Thursday, a shortwave trough will continue eastward into the northern Plains during the day, with primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with cooling aloft and increasing midlevel winds of 40-50 kt.

At the surface, a cold front will be located from eastern ND into western SD during the afternoon, and will move into northern MN overnight. Southwest winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases. Storms are most likely to form around 00Z along the deeper cold front over eastern ND, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular. Strong heating into central SD may also yield isolated cells a bit farther south than forecast by many models, also with large hail threat.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, August 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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