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Outlook for Monday, August 18

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, August 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, August 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, August 18	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, August 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120811 SPC AC 120811

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, an upper low will move from Manitoba across Hudson Bay and into Quebec. Moderate midlevel westerlies will exist over the far northern Plains to Upper Great Lakes during this period, with gradual weakening. An upper high will also be centered over the mid MS Valley, while a weak midlevel trough with cool air aloft slowly departs the Great Basin.

At the surface, a front is forecast to stall on Friday/D4 from northern NE across southern MN and into northern WI, with a moist and unstable air mass remaining to the south. This front will remain over roughly the same zone into Saturday/D5, and perhaps as late as Sunday/D6.

Given that the moist and unstable air mass will persist over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley, and minor ripples in the flow are hinted at by several models, areas of storms are expected. However, storm/MCS corridors are difficult to pinpoint this far out. In general, the area from SD into WI will bear watching for wind potential.

From Sunday/D6 onward, an upper ridge is expected to build over much of the western and central states, with a reduction in severe potential overall.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, August 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, August 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, August 14: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, August 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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