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Outlook for Thursday, August 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, August 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, August 19	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, August 20	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, August 21	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140826 SPC AC 140826

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper ridge is forecast to build over the Plains and Rockies through Tuesday/D6, with the upper high retrograding from the central Plains to the Four Corners. East of the ridge axis, northwest midlevel flow of 20-30 kt will persist over the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, with a large area of moisture and instability roughly from MN/IA to IL/IN. This pattern should support corridors of thunderstorms in the low-level warm advection zone, or along the northern instability gradient through Tuesday/D6. While areas of strong wind gusts will be possible, the overall severe probably is less than the 15% threshold over this large zone.

The upper ridge may flatten over the northern Rockies/Plains beyond D6, with perhaps an eventual northwest flow regime coinciding with residual instability, supporting at least minimal severe potential over the northern Plains.

..Jewell.. 08/14/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, August 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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