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Outlook for Friday, August 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, August 18	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, August 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, August 20	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, August 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150844 SPC AC 150844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6

At mid-levels, heights are forecast to rise across the north-central states on Monday and Tuesday, as west-northwesterly flow remains from parts of the northern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day along parts of a front, which is forecast to be slow-moving and situated from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes. An isolated severe threat will be possible in the vicinity of the front within a moderately unstable airmass on Monday from parts of South Dakota eastward into the western Great Lakes. Storms with an isolated severe threat will again be possible on Tuesday. The greatest convective coverage is forecast to be further to the east from the southern Great Lakes into the central Appalachians.

On Wednesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over parts of the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. In this area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear are forecast to be weak suggesting the potential for severe storms will remain low.

Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8

On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of the front along an axis of instability from parts of South Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. An isolated severe threat may develop with this activity during the afternoon and evening. The potential for isolated severe is forecast to shift southeastward into the mid Missouri upper Mississippi Valleys on Friday. However, uncertainty is low at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 08/15/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, August 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 17: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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