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Outlook for Saturday, August 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, August 19	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, August 20	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, August 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, August 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, August 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5

A mid-level ridge will build across the Rockies and northern High Plains during the middle part of the week. At the surface, a front will advance slowly southward into the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A post-frontal airmass will remain over the upper Mississippi and Great Lakes region. On the southern and western periphery of this airmass, moderate instability is forecast to develop each afternoon. Limited large-scale ascent is expected to keep convective coverage isolated. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear along much of the instability corridor, steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could be enough for a marginal severe threat in areas that destabilize the most.

Thursday/Day 6 and Saturday/Day 8

Mid-level zonal flow is forecast to develop on Thursday over much of the north-central and northwestern U.S., as a ridge moves southeastward into the western Great Lakes. A pocket of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front on Thursday in the northern Plains. Limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage isolated. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be modest, any cell that can develop and persist near the stronger instability in the late afternoon and early evening could obtain an isolated severe threat.

On Friday an Saturday, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the north-central U.S. Near and ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region. The combination of instability and shear could be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range in the forecast.

..Broyles.. 08/16/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, August 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 18: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, August 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, August 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, August 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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