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Outlook for Sunday, August 24

Outlook Summary

A few severe thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado 2%

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 241630

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA

### SUMMARY

A few severe thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across the southern/central High Plains spanning from eastern Colorado into western Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of Pennsylvania and New York.

Southern/Central High Plains

Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of western/southern KS in a northwesterly mid-level flow regime. This activity has generally remained sub-severe, but the stronger cores could be capable of producing occasional hail as they track southeastward this afternoon given the presence of sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer shear. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow is expected to remain over parts of the central into southern Plains today, generally from eastern WY/CO into western KS/OK and vicinity, between a mid/upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest and mid/upper-level troughing across the Upper Midwest. A surface front extends from northern CO into western KS. This boundary, along with outflow from ongoing convection, may serve as foci for robust thunderstorm development later today.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding convective development and evolution this afternoon/evening across the southern/central High Plains given weak forcing aloft. Modest low-level upslope flow and orographic effects should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms to initially develop over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range, and subsequently spread southeastward into the High Plains through the evening. The front/outflow boundary draped from northeast CO into southwest KS could also serve as a forcing mechanism to aid parcels in reaching their LFCs. The environment along/south of the front should become moderately unstable with continued daytime heating, with greater low-level moisture present across western KS into the OK/TX Panhandles and western OK.

Modest low-level southeasterlies should persist through much of the afternoon/evening along and near the front, which should locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. It appears possible that a supercell or two could develop near the front later today and track south-southeastward in a favorable northwesterly mid-level flow regime. Isolated large hail would probably be the main threat if a supercell can be sustained, with perhaps a tornado also possible where low-level flow can remain backed to southeasterly near the front. Some guidance suggests a cluster or two may eventually emerge this evening across eastern CO and/or southwest KS, but this potential remains highly uncertain. Mesoscale trends will be monitored for a zone of more focused severe potential and possible outlook upgrade.

New York/Pennsylvania

An amplified upper trough/low over Ontario and extending southward into the Great Lakes/Midwest is forecast to gradually shift eastward today. A related surface cold front will also advance east-southeastward through the period across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic/OH Valley. Filtered daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass ahead of the front will promote weak to locally moderate instability this afternoon, especially across parts of PA/NY. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop along/near the front through the afternoon across western PA/NY. While mid-level lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which will likely limit updraft strength, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support some thunderstorm organization. Loosely organized clusters/cells may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail as they spread eastward across central PA and central/northern NY through early evening. This activity should weaken with eastward extent as it encounters a less unstable airmass.

..Gleason/Moore.. 08/24/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, August 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, August 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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