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Outlook for Monday, August 25

Outlook Summary

Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 250559

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA

### SUMMARY

Isolated severe gusts are possible over parts of south-central Arizona this afternoon. Otherwise, potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the continental U.S.

Synopsis

A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains. Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening.

Southern Arizona

Monsoon thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger mid-level southeasterly flow (20 to 25 knots) is forecast to overspread the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally northwestward through the evening.

..Bentley/Weinman.. 08/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, August 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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