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Outlook for Wednesday, August 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, August 27	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, August 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, August 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, August 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, August 31	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240838 SPC AC 240838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6

On Wednesday, a large-scale cyclonic flow pattern is forecast to remain over the north-central and northeastern U.S., as a mid-level ridge remains over the southern and central Rockies. Low-level moisture return is forecast over the southern and central Plains, where an axis of instability should set up from west Texas into eastern Colorado by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may develop from near the instability axis eastward across Kansas from late afternoon into the evening. Weak instability should keep any severe potential localized.

On Thursday, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across east Texas and eastern Oklahoma. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward across the region, isolated scattered thunderstorms will be possible over much eastern Oklahoma extending eastward into the Ozarks. Instability and deep-layer shear should be enough for a marginal severe threat in these areas. This potential is forecast to shift southward into southeast Texas on Friday, as a cold front advances toward the Gulf Coast.

Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8

On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level ridge is forecast over the western U.S., as northwesterly flow remains over much of the central and eastern U.S. An axis of instability may develop over parts of the southern and central High Plains each afternoon, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Any severe threat associated with the storms is expected to be localized.

..Broyles.. 08/24/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, August 25: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, August 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, August 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, August 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, August 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, August 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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