Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 5

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 1	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 4	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 5	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290833 SPC AC 290833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

A broad northwesterly upper flow regime will be in place across the CONUS early this week, before a pronounced mid-level trough amplifies greatly while tracking across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week. As this occurs, surface low development is likely around the Great Lakes, with a strong cold front poised to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast during the Days 5-8 (Tuesday-Friday) time frame. Cool and stable conditions will usher in behind the cold front. However, Gulf moisture may advect north-northeast ahead of the front along the East Coast toward the end of the week. Assuming forcing for ascent is not purely anafrontal, it is plausible that at least isolated severe storms could develop along the East Coast around Days 7-8 (Thursday-Friday). However, confidence in the specific timing and magnitude of any severe threat this far in advance is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, August 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, August 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, August 31: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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