Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 6

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, September 4	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, September 5	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, September 6	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300844 SPC AC 300844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is poised to rapidly amplify while traversing the eastern U.S. from around mid-week into next weekend, encouraging a surface cold front to sweep across the northern Plains to the East Coast Days 4-7 (Tuesday-Friday). Around Day 6 (Thursday), the surface cold front should encounter richer low-level moisture while impinging on the Appalachians. Surface dewpoints well into the 60s F may support MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. However, much of the stronger vertical wind shear and associated upper support may potentially lag the surface cold front. As such, uncertainties remain regarding severe potential, with no probabilities introduced this outlook. Nonetheless, it is plausible that a broken band or line of storms with at least scattered gusty conditions (perhaps damaging winds) may organize to the immediate lee of the Appalachians on Thursday. By the weekend, medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of moisture return to the southern Plains, along with instability, which may foster isolated severe potential.

..Squitieri.. 08/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, August 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, August 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, September 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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