Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 7

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, September 5	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 6	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 7	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310849 SPC AC 310849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface cold front will surge east-southeastward across the Plains states and the MS Valley Day 4 (Wednesday) before impinging on the East Coast by Days 5-6 (Thursday-Friday) as a mid-level trough amplifies over the Great Lakes. Adequate low-level moisture will precede the cold front, supporting potentially strong thunderstorms over the southern Plains on Wednesday given favorable overlapping shear/instability. Thereafter, potentially strong thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front over the central/northern Appalachians into the Hudson River Valley Thursday and Friday as the cold front encounters progressively richer moisture. The main limiting factor for a clearer severe threat is the potential for deep-layer ascent/shear potentially lagging behind the cold front. Nonetheless, convergence along the surface cold front may still support enough of a severe threat to warrant probabilities by the Days 1-3 time frame. Medium-range guidance depicts some moisture return across the southern Plains by the end of the week into next weekend, as a second mid-level impulse pivots around the broader cyclonic flow enveloping the eastern U.S. Should this occur, enough favorable overlapping buoyancy and shear may support an isolated severe risk.

..Squitieri.. 08/31/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, August 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, September 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, September 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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