Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 9

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 5	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, September 6	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 7	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, September 8	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 9	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020834 SPC AC 020834

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast late this week, ejecting into the Atlantic by the end of the weekend. Thereafter, a more progressive pattern will ensue, with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs poised to traverse the CONUS early into the middle of next week. Despite differences among medium-range guidance members, there is general agreement that a surface cold front will encounter seasonal low-level moisture across the eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Friday-Saturday), promoting thunderstorm potential (some of which may be strong). However, any severe threat accompanying these storms is expected to be localized and isolated. Surface high pressure will then become established from the MS River Valley eastward, allowing for moisture return across the Plains states by next week. Nonetheless, overall forcing for ascent, along with buoyancy, are expected to be weak over the Plains next week, with severe potential currently appearing low.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Thursday, September 4: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, September 5: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 6: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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