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Outlook for Friday, September 12

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 8	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 9	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 11	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 12	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050854 SPC AC 050854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level ridging within the West will slowly shift into the Plains this weekend and into perhaps the middle of next week. Modest to moderate mid-level flow will generally continue across the Midwest/Northeast. In the West, current guidance shows a trough slowly making progress east next week. Model guidance has shown a high degree of variability with regard to how this western trough will evolve through time. Expansive surface high pressure will be present in parts of the Plains and points eastward. With time, this high will move east and promote southerly return flow across the Plains. This process will accelerate as the western trough approaches. While some strong to severe storms will be possible as moisture returns northward, the timing and location of this potential largely depends on where surface boundaries set up and where smaller scale perturbations will eject into the Plains. The predictability of these features remains low at this time.

..Wendt.. 09/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, September 5: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, September 6: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, September 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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