Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 10	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 11	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 13	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070858 SPC AC 070858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

The mid-level flow pattern across the US is forecast to become more stagnant into the extended-range forecast period as the western US upper low deepens and shortwave ridging over the Plains moves slowly eastward. Broad troughing over the East should gradually consolidate, slowing eastward progress of the upper ridge. As the western trough slowly approaches the Rockies, a lee trough should sharpen each afternoon with a narrow zone of moisture return along and east into parts of the High Plains. Sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms, and perhaps some severe risk, near the lee trough as smaller embedded perturbations eject eastward periodically. However, with only slow movement of the upper ridge expected, forcing for ascent should remain modest until early next weekend. Somewhat greater severe potential may develop D6/Friday or D7/Saturday as the primary upper trough begins to emerge over the Plains. However, given the uncertainties associated with the smaller scale features, and the timing of the main trough, limited confidence exists regarding severe potential in the extended forecast.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 9: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, September 10: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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