Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, September 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, September 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090859 SPC AC 090859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

As shortwave ridging begins to breakdown into this weekend, the upper trough and enhanced southwesterly flow over the Rockies will finally begin to overspread the Plains D4/Friday and D5/Saturday. Continued east/southeasterly low-level flow is likely over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, allowing for the return of richer surface moisture. A stalled front extending eastward from the lee low over the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes may serve as a focus for storm development across the Dakotas and MN. However, models vary on the degree of moisture and resulting buoyancy near the low/front, which casts significant uncertainty on severe potential. Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft could support some organized severe threat, but confidence in specifics remains too low for 15% probabilities.

Farther south, sufficient destabilization is expected to support isolated thunderstorms each afternoon into the central and southern Plains. While the main upper trough should begin to weaken later into the weekend, lingering mid-level flow could support some severe risk within a hot and unstable air mass along a surface trough. By early next week, mid-level ridging is expected to rebuild over the central CONUS keeping stronger flow aloft and severe potential limited for the remainder of the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, September 11: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, September 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, September 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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