Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, September 19

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 16	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 17	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 18	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, September 19	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120758 SPC AC 120758

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

On Monday, a shortwave trough in the northern Plains will continue to pivot northeast. The timing of this feature remains uncertain. The ECMWF is the lone model that has a solution slow enough to have some destabilization occur ahead of the trough. It is not clear how much, if any, severe threat will exist in parts of central/northern Minnesota.

On Tuesday, models indicate shortwave ridging will develop behind the departing trough in the Upper Midwest. A secondary, broader trough will be situated in the northern Rockies. Mid-level flow will not be particularly strong, but embedded perturbations may provide some enhancement. Depending on the quality of remaining moisture in the Plains, some severe risk could develop along the surface trough in the central High Plains. Uncertainty is high, however.

Through the remainder of the week, the upper-level pattern becomes much more disorganized. Stronger flow may not return until the weekend with a trough approaches the Northwest. Organized severe potential appears to be low during this period.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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