Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, September 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, September 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, September 17	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, September 18	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, September 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, September 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130754 SPC AC 130754

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Weak mid/upper-level troughing should continue to move slowly eastward from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the central Plains and Upper Midwest from Day 4/Tuesday into Day 5/Wednesday. Thunderstorms should develop across these regions both days as a surface cold front likewise develops east-southeastward. While moderate to locally strong instability may develop across the warm sector each afternoon, mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are expected to remain rather modest. This should tend to limit updraft organization and intensity to some extent, although isolated/marginal severe potential may necessitate low severe probabilities in later outlooks.

By late next week into the following weekend (Day 6/Thursday to Day 8/Saturday), medium-range guidance begins to diverge in its depiction of the evolution of upper troughing across the Midwest/OH Valley into the eastern CONUS. This lowers confidence in the predictability of organized severe thunderstorms, but some potential for strong thunderstorms may exist across portions of these regions along/ahead of an advancing cold front.

..Gleason.. 09/13/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, September 13: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, September 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 15: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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