Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, September 21

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, September 17	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, September 18	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, September 19	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, September 20	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, September 21	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140737 SPC AC 140737

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8/Wed-Sun period. Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that the upper shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains Day 4 will develop an upper low as it meanders slowly east toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley and the upper Great Lakes through most of the forecast period. Some modest west/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the trough, in conjunction with a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a southeastward-drifting cold front could support sporadic strong storms across parts of the central U.S. from the Ozarks to the Upper MS Valley mid to late in the week. However, vertical shear is expected to remain poor, and the slow-moving nature of the upper low and weakening surface front with time/eastward extent, will generally be unfavorable for a more robust severe risk.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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