Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Monday, September 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, September 18	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, September 19	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, September 20	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, September 21	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, September 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150806 SPC AC 150806

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low/shortwave trough will persist over the north-central U.S. for much of the period. This system is not forecast to deepen, resulting in little surface cyclogenesis, with mainly weak surface troughing persisting over the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass, and periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day across parts of the Plains to the MS Valley. Modest vertical shear and airmass modification from daily rounds of convection will likely limit overall severe potential.

Medium range guidance suggests by late in the period, around Day 8/Mon, a stronger surface cold front may sweep across portions of the Plains as a deepening, more progressive upper trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, September 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, September 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, September 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.