Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, September 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, September 19	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, September 20	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, September 21	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, September 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, September 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160809 SPC AC 160809

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through at least Day 6/Sun. A shortwave upper trough over the north-central U.S. will slowly migrate east across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. Weak deep layer flow and limited large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorms. By the end of the period, around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue, medium range guidance suggests a more substantial upper trough will eject from the northern Rockies and deepen over the Plains/Midwest as a stronger surface cold front moves through the central portions of the CONUS. This could support some increasing severe thunderstorm potential, but large spread remains across various forecast guidance regarding timing and evolution of this feature as it develops east of the Rockies early next week.

..Leitman.. 09/16/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, September 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Wednesday, September 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, September 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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