Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, September 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, September 20	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, September 21	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, September 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, September 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, September 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170759 SPC AC 170759

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance generally indicates low-amplitude/weak upper troughing will persist across portions of the central U.S. through the weekend. By early next week, large spread exists between the control members of the GFS and ECMWF and how these models handle the evolution of a deepening upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains/Midwest around Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. Ensemble mean 500 mb forecasts are in better alignment, indicating a stronger large-scale trough will emerge over the Plains and MS Valley late in the period, bringing a stronger autumn cold front south/southeast across much of the central U.S. This could bring some increasing severe potential to portions of the Plains MS Valley during the second half of the forecast period, but given aforementioned uncertainty/large spread, it is unclear which days/locations may experience any increasing risk.

..Leitman.. 09/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, September 17: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, September 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, September 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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