Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, September 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, September 21	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, September 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, September 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, September 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, September 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180749 SPC AC 180749

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however.

Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored.

..Leitman.. 09/18/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, September 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, September 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, September 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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