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Outlook for Friday, September 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, September 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, September 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, September 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, September 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, September 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190850 SPC AC 190850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS.

Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma

ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases.

Day 5 and Beyond

If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal.

..Bentley.. 09/19/2025

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National Risk Overview

Friday, September 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, September 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, September 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, September 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, September 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, September 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, September 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, September 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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