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Outlook for Sunday, September 28

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind 5%

hail 5%

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281617

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today.

NM/Far West TX

Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system, spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as well.

..Mosier/Marsh.. 09/28/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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