Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, September 29

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

Outlook Images

overview

tornado low

wind low

hail low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 281644

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

Synopsis

A broad mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West while a tropical cyclone parallels the FL Peninsula and encroaches on the Carolina shoreline tomorrow (Monday). Deep-layer ascent with the western trough will encourage the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Given strong vertical wind shear amid scant buoyancy, some of the stronger storms over NV into OR and ID may produce strong wind gusts. Multiple weak mid-level impulses preceding the western upper trough will traverse the Rockies and the Upper MS Valley, providing enough lift of a moist airmass to support isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms in these regions.

Outer rainbands from TD9 will approach the FL Peninsula and Carolina coastline through the period. However, current forecast trajectories of TD9 suggest that the northeast quadrant rainbands (and accompanying favorable buoyancy/shear profiles) should remain offshore. As such, no tornado probabilities have been introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/28/2025

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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