Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, October 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 1	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 2	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, October 3	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, October 4	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, October 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280825 SPC AC 280825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Strong cyclogenesis within the westerlies near the Aleutians late this week into next weekend may lead to the development of an increasingly prominent blocking pattern over the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America. This may include an evolving low near the California coast, to the southeast of building mid/upper high over the northeastern Pacific by the end of the period. In general, though, stronger westerlies are forecast to remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, with little potential for substantive cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies, and moist return flow off the Gulf Basin. This likely will maintain generally low convective potential across the nation.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, September 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, September 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, September 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, October 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, October 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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