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Outlook for Saturday, October 11

Outlook Summary

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Outlook Images

overview

any severe low

Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 090650

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST

### SUMMARY

Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

Synopsis

An upper ridge over the Plains will become suppressed on Saturday as a large-scale upper trough over the West develops east through the period. Modest boundary-layer moisture from the Southwest into the northern High Plains will support modest instability. With increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow and forcing for ascent with the ejecting upper trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible. Poor lapse rates and limited instability will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Lower MI into OH beneath the core of an upper cyclone drifting south toward the Ohio Valley. Instability will be meager, but cold temperatures aloft and modest lapse rates should be sufficient from isolated lightning with low-topped convection.

A mid/upper trough will also develop eastward across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. While a cold front will have moved offshore prior to Saturday, sufficient moisture will be in place on the back side of a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas to support modest instability. Any stronger instability, and more robust convection will likely remain offshore, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1930Z

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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