Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, October 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 12	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, October 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090807 SPC AC 090807

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper anticyclone is forecast to remain over TX for much of the Day 4-8 period, with attendant upper ridging oscillating between the Plains and the MS Valley. An upper shortwave trough over the Rockies on Day 4/Sun will lift northeast across the northern Plains into Canada, along with a deepening surface low. As this occurs, a cold front will sweep east across the northern/central Plains and the Upper Midwest through Day 5/Mon. Modest boundary layer moisture ahead of the front will support at least weak instability and thunderstorm potential. However, severe thunderstorm chances appear low given richer boundary layer moisture will remain offset from stronger shear/large-scale ascent.

Another upper shortwave trough is expected to move from the Rockies into portions of the Plains late in the forecast period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis is likely to occur, and southerly low-level flow may transport modest Gulf moisture northward into the central Plains to the MO Valley. Some increase in severe thunderstorm potential could develop around Day 7 or 8/Wed or Thu, from the southern/central Plains toward the MO Valley. However, confidence is too low to include severe probabilities at this time given poor run-to-run model consistency.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, October 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, October 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, October 12: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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