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Outlook for Saturday, October 18

Outlook Images

any severe 15%

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 16	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, October 17	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 18	15%
Day 7	Sunday, October 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, October 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130858 SPC AC 130858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6

On Thursday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward into the Mississippi Valley, as a low and an associated shortwave trough move northeastward into the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is expected Thursday afternoon along and ahead of a cold front from central Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas. An isolated severe threat will be possible, but should be marginal due to weak instability.

From Friday into Saturday, a large-scale mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the central Rockies and Intermountain West into the Great Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening ahead of the trough along and near an axis of instability from Oklahoma northeastward into northwest Missouri. Forecast instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for an isolated severe threat.

Friday night, low-level moisture advection is forecast to markedly increase as surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F overspread the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Moderate instability is expected to develop early in the day on Saturday across parts of the moist sector, where moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Thunderstorms that form along and near the axis of strongest instability should obtain a severe threat. Supercells with severe wind gusts, hail and tornado potential will be possible. The magnitude of the severe threat will be greatest in areas that remain unaffected by morning thunderstorm activity. The severe threat should spread eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley Saturday evening and into the overnight period. Although lingering uncertainties exist, confidence in the model solutions is great enough to add a 15 percent area over parts of Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8

The mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and to the mid Atlantic Seaboard on Monday. Thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. New convective development is expected during the day on Sunday ahead of the front as surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorm development should also occur on Monday ahead of the front. However, instability is forecast to remain relatively weak across much of the moist sector on Sunday and Monday, suggesting the severe threat in most areas will remain relatively isolated.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, October 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, October 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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