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Outlook for Tuesday, October 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 17	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 18	15%
Day 6	Sunday, October 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, October 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 140857 SPC AC 140857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5

A large-scale mid-level trough, and an associated cold front are forecast to move across the central U.S. on Friday and Saturday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from late Friday afternoon into the evening along and ahead of the front from the southern Plains northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of much of the front, MLCAPE is forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear ranging from 30 to 40 knots. This should be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Cells with potential for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

On Saturday, moisture advection is forecast to markedly increase ahead of the approaching trough, as surface dewpoints increase into the 60s F over much of the moist sector. In spite of this, instability will be tempered over parts of the Ozarks by ongoing convection Saturday morning. The models suggest that an axis of moderate instability will develop a bit further west by afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, mainly in the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorms that develop along and near the instability axis should obtain a severe threat. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over much of the moist sector, which will contribute to a potential for supercells with wind damage, hail and potentially a tornado threat. Storm mode is still uncertain, and linear mode could become favored relatively early in the event. Under this scenario, wind damage would be the most likely of the three hazards. The severe threat should persist into the overnight period, as an MCS moves eastward through the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8

Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys southward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection, along with abundant cloud cover, should limit destabilization over much of the moist sector during the day. In spite of this, an isolated severe threat could develop in areas where sufficient surface heating takes place, from parts of northern Florida northward into the southern Appalachians. The severe threat is expected to diminish across the eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday, as the cold front moves offshore into the western Atlantic. However, uncertainty is still substantial at this forecast range.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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