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Outlook for Wednesday, October 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 18	15%
Day 5	Sunday, October 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, October 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 21	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150857 SPC AC 150857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Saturday/Day 4

A large-scale mid-level trough will move through the Great Plains on Saturday, with a moist airmass in place across the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. Within this airmasss, an area of thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of eastern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Ahead of this convection, moisture advection and surface heating will contribute to a moderately unstable airmass by midday, with forecasts increasing MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg across the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development appears likely in the early afternoon over much of Ozarks, where moderate deep-layer shear is forecast. The ECWMF is forecasting 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range over this part of the moist sector, suggesting a severe threat will be probable during the afternoon. Wind damage will be possible with bowing line segments, and low-level shear should be sufficient for tornadoes. Hail will also be possible, mainly if supercells can develop. Storm mode still remains uncertain. If the mode goes linear early in the event, the wind-damage threat could become dominant. The severe threat should persist through the evening and into the overnight period, as an MCS moves through the central Gulf Coast states.

Sunday/Day 5 and Monday/Day 6

The mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday, and to the Atlantic Seaboard on Monday. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible Sunday and Sunday night, with much of the convection moving offshore into the Atlantic relatively early on Monday. An isolated severe threat would still be possible closer to the mid-level low in parts of the Mid-Atlantic Monday afternoon.

Tuesday/Day 7 and Wednesday/Day 8

From Tuesday into Wednesday, a mid-level low is forecast to move across the southwestern U.S., reaching the southern Rockies by Wednesday night. If the models are relatively close on the system timing, an isolated severe threat could develop ahead of the system Wednesday night across the southern Plains. However, uncertainty at this range is substantial.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 15: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, October 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Friday, October 17: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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