Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, October 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 21	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160847 SPC AC 160847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5

A large-scale mid-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Sunday. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley at the start of the period. This convection should have a negative impact on instability across the much of the moist sector during the day. In areas that are not impacted, weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front from Georgia and the Carolinas into the central Appalachians. The instability combined with strong large-scale ascent and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will likely result in a severe threat. A potential for wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible. At this time, uncertainty is substantial as to exactly where the greatest severe potential will occur. As new runs come in, an upgrade to Slight may be needed.

A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Northeast on Monday, as the associated trough moves into the western Atlantic. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible in parts of southern New England during the late morning and early afternoon before the front moves offshore.

Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8

On Tuesday and Wednesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Mississippi Valley into the western Atlantic, as flow becomes west-northwesterly across much of the eastern and northern U.S. By Thursday, a mid-level low is forecast to develop in the Desert Southwest. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this system on Thursday across parts of the Four Corners region and southern Rockies. However, uncertainty concerning the timing and strength of this system is substantial at this extended range.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 18: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Sunday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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