Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, October 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, October 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, October 21	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, October 22	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, October 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170847 SPC AC 170847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Northeast Day 4/Monday

As the strong upper trough moves from the OH Valley and Appalachians into the Northeast, low-end severe potential remains possible ahead of the cold front D4/Monday over parts of New England. Confined to a narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong low-level wind fields, shallow convection could support isolated damaging gusts before the front moves offshore by mid afternoon.

Rest of US

As the strong eastern US trough and low move into the Atlantic early next week, offshore flow should limit available moisture and buoyancy for much of the CONUS. A mid-level low moving into the Southwest and the southern Plains mid to late week could support some thunderstorms activity toward the end of the forecast period. However, uncertainty remains very high with model guidance suggesting limited moisture return and poor overlap with stronger vertical shear. Thus, predictability remains too low for severe probabilities through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, October 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, October 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 19: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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