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Outlook for Saturday, October 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, October 21	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, October 22	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, October 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180859 SPC AC 180859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of the strong eastern US trough and cold front moving offshore D3/Monday, a second upper low will deepen over the eastern US through the first half of next week. As the low deepens, persistent northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure will build over the central US. Post-frontal offshore flow should limit surface moisture/instability and resulting thunderstorm chances for much of the CONUS through Wednesday.

Some thunderstorm potential may return D6/Thursday and D7/Friday as a southern stream shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Cooling temperatures aloft overspreading modest moisture return over TX/OK could support some thunderstorm activity. However, uncertainty on destabilization and stronger vertical shear remains very high, thereby limiting severe predictability.

Additional thunderstorm chances may develop over the central US next weekend as another Pacific trough approaches. But, model guidance remains quite varied on the intensity/evolution as well as available moisture ahead of this system. Thus, predictability remains too low for severe probabilities through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 18: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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