Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, October 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 22	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, October 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, October 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190853 SPC AC 190853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

In the wake of the strong upper low over the eastern US, thunderstorm chances will be temporarily muted across the central and eastern US with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting available instability. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late D4/Wed over parts of the Southwest ahead of a southern stream shortwave trough moving onshore from the eastern Pacific. However, moisture and buoyancy should be quite sparse, suggesting only isolated coverage and negligible severe risk.

Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley D5-D8

The shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to move into the southern Plains as high pressure over the eastern US settles along the Gulf Coast. As the trough crosses the Rockies, a lee low should develop, allowing for modest low-level moisture return over parts of the lower MS Valley and southern Plains. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening of the airmass over TX/OK should support increasing thunderstorm chances through the end of the week, with thunderstorm potential extending into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley next weekend.

Some severe potential is apparent as westerly flow aloft increases amidst the returning moisture/instability. However, details such as the degree of destabilization, timing/structure of the upper trough, and the potential for organized storms remains highly uncertain. 15% severe probabilities could be introduced in future outlook cycles should confidence in organized severe potential increase.

..Lyons.. 10/19/2025

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National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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