Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Monday, October 27

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, October 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, October 26	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, October 27	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200858 SPC AC 200858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe storm potential is likely to increase through the extended forecast period as a series of upper troughs and enhanced southwesterly flow aloft return to the central and southeastern CONUS. The primary uncertainty remains the degree of moisture return and instability.

D4/Thursday-D6/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex

A shortwave trough will cross the southern Rockies into the High Plains supporting lee cyclogenesis Thursday and Thursday night. In the wake of the earlier frontal passage, modest low-level moisture return is expected to take place east of the low and a lee trough over the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward. Cooling mid-level temperatures will allow for diurnal destabilization and some organized severe potential as westerly flow aloft also increases. Strong to potentially severe storms are possible D4/Thursday and D5/Friday in vicinity of the surface low and warm front across KS/OK, and along the lee trough into the TX Panhandle. However, confidence in the overall severe risk and its evolution is low, pending sufficient moisture return and the timing of the upper trough.

Some severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArklaTex D6/Saturday as the upper low moves eastward and low-level moisture return continues. Confidence in the severe risk is limited, owing to the potential for several prior days of convection.

Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D7-D8

Greater severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended forecast period as a deep upper trough matures over the Plains D7/Sunday and moves into the Midwest/MS Valley D8/Monday. Ensemble and deterministic guidance show a strong cold front and low with sufficient moisture/instability for severe storms capable of all hazards from the eastern Plains and MS Valley late this weekend into early next week. 15% severe probabilities could be needed in future outlook cycles should model solutions converge on timing and location of the greatest severe risk.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, October 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.