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Outlook for Tuesday, October 28

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, October 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, October 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, October 26	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, October 27	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, October 28	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210900 SPC AC 210900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Friday-D5/Saturday Southern Plains/ArkLaTex

The shortwave trough over the southern Plains and associated surface low/Pacific front will gradually move eastward Friday supporting scattered thunderstorms over parts of TX/OK. Overnight convection and continued low-level warm air advection is likely to impact the environment to some degree. This suggests very low predictability for any organized severe threat. Still, broad ascent, moderate deep-layer shear, and the potential for destabilization suggests at least some severe risk may develop from central OK southward toward the Red River and central TX vicinity Friday.

Low-end severe potential will likely shift eastward into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley D5/Saturday as the upper low moves farther eastward. Most guidance shows the upper trough beginning to weaken with the surface features also becoming more ill defined with time. While the general environment likely will remain supportive of thunderstorms and isolated severe potential, details are sparse.

Eastern Plains and Mid MS Valley D6/Sunday-D7 Monday

Higher severe potential may develop towards the end of the extended forecast period as a Pacific trough and amplified westerly flow develop over the western US D6/Sunday and move into the Plains and Midwest D7/Monday. Substantial variability exists between multiple ensemble and deterministic models regarding the evolution of the trough and resulting surface pattern. More amplified and less progressive solutions, along with some ML guidance, show the potential for a deep surface low and strong cold front to develop and sweep eastward. Should this occur, robust moisture return for fall is likely to develop along with strong low and mid-level wind fields across much of the central US. A favorable synoptic regime could support widespread severe storm development with sufficient instability/shear overlap for all hazards from the eastern Plains into the MS Valley and Midwest.

This scenario remains highly uncertain with large variance noted between both ensemble and deterministic solutions regarding the structure and timing of the upper trough. Given the degree of spatial and temporal variance, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities in the extended forecast. However, 15% or higher severe probabilities could be needed in future outlook cycles should guidance trend towards a more unified/higher-end solution.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, October 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, October 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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