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Outlook for Wednesday, October 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, October 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, October 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, October 27	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, October 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, October 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220845 SPC AC 220845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Sat-D5/Sun East TX/Lower MS Valley

The upper low over the southern Plains will shift eastward this weekend, gradually wakening as it moves over the lower MS Valley. This should result in a rather nebulous surface pattern, with broad low-level warm air advection expected over much of eastern TX and the lower MS Valley. The environment will likely remain supportive of scattered thunderstorms and isolated severe potential given sufficient buoyancy and moderate flow aloft. However, confidence in specific hazards or storm mode is low.

D6/Monday Plains and MS Valley

To the west of the departing upper low, a second Pacific trough will move onshore over the Northwest late this weekend before intensifying early next week. As the main trough and several small-scale perturbations within enhanced westerly flow aloft cross the Rockies, a surface low may develop over the Plains potentially allowing for some northward return of moisture coincident with increased vertical shear. This could support thunderstorms and some severe risk across the eastern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley.

Model guidance remains highly varied on the evolution of this system with the GEFS/GFS notable outliers in its intensity among other solutions. Guidance has trended toward an overall less amplified and more disjointed evolution, with persistent mid-level troughing over the eastern US. This would likely suppress northward return moisture and any potential warm sector over the Plains and Mid MS Valley. Still, some severe risk remains possible over the southern Plains and lower MS valley early next week given the increase in surface moisture and flow aloft. However, the evolution and potential hazards remains very uncertain.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, October 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, October 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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