Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, October 30

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, October 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, October 27	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, October 28	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, October 29	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, October 30	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230859 SPC AC 230859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

DISCUSSION

The upper trough over East TX is forecast to weaken as it moves over the lower MS Valley late this weekend and into early next week.This system will merge with several weaker perturbations over the eastern US as a second trough and strong zonal jet are forecast to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains. Mid-level ridging is expected to develop across the Great Lakes and Southwest early next week. This will likely result in blocked and split mid-level flow before deeper troughing consolidates over the eastern half of the CONUS. As the western ridging builds, flow aloft will trend more northwesterly, suppressing overall amplification of the Plains trough.

Isolated severe potential remains possible D4/Sunday and D5/Monday over parts of the southern Plains and the ArkLaMiss where remnant moisture should intersect with enhanced flow aloft. However, poor lapse rates and several rounds of proceeding storms lends low confidence to specific hazards or spatial coverage.

Through the remainder of next week, broad eastern US troughing will persist with strong northwesterly flow aloft over the western and central US. A strong cold front will develop and sweep eastward midweek, with surface high pressure developing in its wake. This will likely keep substantial moisture return and resulting buoyancy subdued for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, October 23: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 5%
Friday, October 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Saturday, October 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, October 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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