Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, October 28	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, October 29	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, October 30	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, October 31	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 1	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250817 SPC AC 250817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe storms appear unlikely over the CONUS through the extended forecast period. An upper low is forecast to deepen over much of the eastern US while ridging develops over the West. This will amplify the overall pattern with strong northwesterly flow likely over much of the central US. In response, a strong cold front and very deep surface low will move offshore scouring available surface moisture from the central US midweek next week. The persistent eastern US troughing and high pressure in the wake of the cold front over the central US will favor cooler, drier and more stable surface conditions through the remainder of next week.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, October 25: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, October 26: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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