Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, October 29	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, October 30	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, October 31	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 1	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 2	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260843 SPC AC 260843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper trough and jet over the central US will merge with a broad upper low over the eastern US midweek. At the same time, ridging will develop over the West, as the flow pattern aloft amplifies significantly. This will drive strong northwesterly flow across the central CONUS. An associated cold front will sweep through the central and eastern US before moving offshore D4/Wed. As the front moves offshore, a deep coastal low is expected to develop and could promote isolated thunderstorm activity along the East Coast or south FL late this week and into the weekend. However, the persistent eastern US troughing and strong surface high pressure behind the cold front will favor much cooler, drier and more stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thus, thunderstorm chances are low with little severe risk through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, October 26: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, October 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, October 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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