Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, November 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, October 30	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, October 31	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 1	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 2	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, November 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270847 SPC AC 270847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

An amplified, but stagnant mid-level flow pattern is forecast to develop over the US late this week continuing into the weekend. Punctuated, by continued large-scale troughing over the eastern US, a deep coastal low will develop and move off the Atlantic Coast. Accompanying the low, a strong cold front is forecast to scour moisture from much of the continent as surface high pressure builds behind it. As troughing is maintained to the east, ridging will build over the western US supporting strong northwesterly flow aloft over the central CONUS. Strengthening surface high pressure will favor continued offshore flow and little moisture return. Widespread cooler and more stable surface conditions are forecast to persist into early next week with little change in the large-scale pattern. Thus, thunderstorm chances are low with little severe risk through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, October 27: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, October 28: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, October 29: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, October 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, October 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, November 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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