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Outlook for Thursday, November 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 16	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, November 17	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 18	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130949 SPC AC 130949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

South-Central States on D5-8/Monday-Thursday

Bulk of guidance continues to follow the lead of the EC-AIFS with the handling of a shortwave trough initially over the Southwest at 12Z Sunday. This compact wave should dampen as it crosses the southern Rockies to the central Great Plains into Monday. The peripheral southern influence of the wave may overspread the northern periphery of a confined western Gulf moisture plume. While 5 percent severe probabilities are evident, this setup will likely depend greatly on more precise timing of the trough ejection and attendant surface cyclone placement for a 15 percent highlight.

The dampening of this wave will largely be in response to an upper ridge building from the Gulf into the Midwest downstream of an expansive trough becoming anchored over the Southwest. This may yield expansion of the persistent western Gulf moisture plume in the South-Central States mid-week. Most guidance indicates an intense mid-level jet may develop along the backside of this trough and eventually curl through the base with the trough accelerating eastward. Predictable timing of such a transition appears low given the large spread across guidance, but the EC-AIFS and AIGFS are consistent together in the 00Z run. This could yield an increasing severe threat starting around Wednesday, which is supported by NSSL GEFS ML version 1 probabilities peaking in this time frame.

..Grams.. 11/13/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 14: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, November 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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