Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 18	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, November 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150845 SPC AC 150845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Upper-level ridging over the Plains on Day 4/Tue will develop eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS through Day 5/Wed as a western upper trough slowly ejects over the Rockies and into the Plains around Day 6/Thu. Gulf moisture will return northward across the southern Plains and south-central states ahead of the ejecting upper trough. Isolated strong to severe storms may be possible on Wednesday across the southern Plains and Ozarks vicinity in a warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough. By Day 6/Thu, the upper trough should progress east across the Plains toward the Mississippi Valley, with a surface cold front sweeping eastward as this occurs, and some severe potential could accompany widespread thunderstorm activity ahead of the front.

Confidence in coverage of severe storms Day 5-6/Wed-Thu is uncertain. Large spread (and poor run-to-run consistency) exists among forecast guidance. The GFS and ECMWF-AIFS are more similar compared to the dynamical ECMWF, indicating a slower ejecting trough and only modest surface cyclogenesis until late Thursday when the low ejects northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes. Furthermore, while strong southwesterly flow will overspread northward returning Gulf moisture across the Plains and south-central states, forcing for ascent will be somewhat limited on Wednesday as the trough ejects more slowly. As the trough ejects on Thursday and a cold front becomes a focus for storm development, boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a northeastward ejecting cyclone may favor a more anafrontal, training convection/heavy rainfall scenario. While severe potential certainly is in play for Days 5-6/Wed-Thu, these uncertainties preclude 15 percent probabilities at this time.

Beyond Day 6/Thu, model disparity increases substantially and predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 11/15/2025

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Sunday, November 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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