Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Sunday, November 23

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, November 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 22	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 23	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160959 SPC AC 160959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday

An increase in severe potential remains evident across the south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak until late Wednesday night.

As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday, though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward extent.

Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks.

D6/Friday - D8/Sunday

Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite large within other extended-range guidance.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, November 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.