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Outlook for Monday, November 24

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, November 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 22	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 23	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, November 24	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170907 SPC AC 170907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley

An upper trough over the Four Corners vicinity will eject east/northeast into the Plains on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread portions of OK/TX toward the Ozarks as this occurs. Warm advection ahead of the trough, coincident with a weakening southerly low-level jet, will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region early Thursday. This may temper destabilization despite rich boundary layer moisture. Meanwhile, a surface low will modestly deepen near the OK/KS border, and a north-south oriented cold front draped across west TX will develop eastward through the period, with a warm front extending west-east across central MO/southern IL. These boundaries may focus some risk for stronger storms within a weak to moderately unstable airmass. However, the magnitude of the severe risk still remains uncertain given potential for widespread and possibly heavy rainfall, somewhat weak low-level flow, and the weakening of the upper trough as it shifts east/northeast during the evening. Severe probabilities may become necessary is subsequent outlooks, but uncertainty remains too high to include a 15 percent delineation at this time.

Day 5/Fri - Mid/Lower MS and OH/TN Valley vicinity

The surface cold front will continue to develop east/southeast across the region on Friday/Friday night. Some low-end severe potential could persist given rich boundary layer moisture and at least modest buoyancy ahead of the front. However, persistent rainfall and a weakening upper trough with veering/boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will likely limit storm intensity.

Days 6-8/Sat-Mon

Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the period and forecast confidence is low. However, most guidance depicts some version of an upper trough/low over the Southwest ejecting east toward the Plains, but the differences in timing/intensity, etc limit predictability. Some increase in severe potential could return to portions of the southern Plains depending on how this potential trough evolves and guidance trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, November 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, November 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, November 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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