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Outlook for Tuesday, November 25

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, November 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, November 22	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, November 23	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, November 24	predictability too low
Day 8	Tuesday, November 25	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180924 SPC AC 180924

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Fri-Sat - Southeast TX to the Carolinas

A shortwave upper trough over the southern Plains will migrate east across the Mid-South on Friday, and exiting the southern Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. Gulf moisture will spread across much of the region ahead of a weak surface low and slowly moving cold front. Thunderstorms, perhaps some strong, could develop near the front from southeast TX into the Mid-South and OH/TN Valley vicinity on Friday into early Saturday. However, instability is expected to remain weak as boundary layer moisture decreases with northeast extent. Furthermore, low-level flow will remain veering and boundary-parallel deep-layer flow will favor more of a messy/training storm mode. While some low-end severe probabilities could become necessary in later outlook, potential appears too low for 15 percent probabilities on Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to develop eastward into the Carolinas on Saturday as the cold front continues to sag southeast. Weak instability will likely preclude severe potential into Saturday.

Days 6-8/Sun-Tue - Southern Plains

Spread among forecast guidance increases considerably by Days 6-7/Sun-Mon and confidence/predictability is low. However, in general another upper trough is expected to deepen across the Southwestern U.S. early next week, perhaps ejecting into the Plains sometime around the end of the forecast period. Gulf return flow will occur across TX ahead of this next trough in a progressive upper pattern. Increasing moisture and shear as the trough ejects could support severe potential across the southern Plains early next week, but details remain uncertain.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2025

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, November 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, November 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Thursday, November 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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