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Outlook for Wednesday, November 26

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, November 22	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, November 23	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, November 24	predictability too low
Day 7	Tuesday, November 25	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, November 26	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190906 SPC AC 190906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture. However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping. Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become better resolved.

The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, November 19: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, November 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, November 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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