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Outlook for Thursday, November 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, November 23	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, November 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Tuesday, November 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Wednesday, November 26	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, November 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200909 SPC AC 200909

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Sun-Tue – Southern Plains to the TN Valley

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest/northern Mexico will eject east into the Plains by early Day 5/Monday. Gulf moisture will spread northward across portions of TX into the Lower MS Valley through early Tuesday. This moisture return will occur ahead of the ejecting trough/increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow, and a cold front sweeping across the region. Warm advection will support thunderstorm development by late Sunday as the upper trough and cold front begin to march across TX, and some hail risk could accompany this activity. However, storm mode could preclude a greater risk, and storm coverage/intensity is uncertain given overnight timing.

As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday. However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting well north of the region by this time.

Days 7-8/Wed-Thu

The surface front will move offshore on Day 7/Wed and strong surface high pressure will build across much of the CONUS. This will result in dry and colder conditions, leading to a stable airmass. Severe potential appears low mid to late in the week.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, November 20: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Friday, November 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, November 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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